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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

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A | 12日，我国放假办法迎来了一次重要调整。 WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。新增了2天法定假日：农历除夕和5月2日。此次调整的放假办法看，有两大主要看点：一是除夕放假，春节假期延长。

B | 二是“五一”国际劳动节法定假日多1天，调休减少。从单休到双休，从三大黄金周到如今的小长假，从除夕“被踢”到重回法定假期，中国的公休制度经历了几十年的变革，步伐从未停止。每次调整，虽然看似小小的改变，却都折射出中国社会从生产导向到消费驱动的转型。这一过程中，不仅为国民提供了更多休闲和消费的机会，也有力推动国内旅游业和相关产业的发展，为经济增长注入新的活力。从“单休”到“黄金周”——中国公休制度的成长史 1949-1993：单休制度的试水与调整新中国成立初期，国家的公休制度非常简单——单休。1949年，《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》首次提出法定假期制度，新年、春节、劳动节和国庆纪念日成为全体人民共同享有的可休假节日，其中新年、劳动节各放假1天，国庆纪念日放假2天，春节放假3天，总天数7天。此外，妇女、中等学校以上学生、儿童及军事机关人员还分别享有妇女节、青年节、儿童节、建军节各半天的假期。1949年版还规定，属于全体群众的假日，如果遇到星期日，应在周一补假；属于部分群众享有的假日，则不补假。虽然假期安排看起来不多，但毕竟是为了解决当时特殊时期社会生产力有限的问题。不过，随着经济发展，政府也开始对劳动者的休息时间进行调整。1952年，国务院发布了《劳动就业问题的决定》，提出有害健康的工作可以减少工时，甚至实施“做三休一”制度。这一切，都是为了保证在高强度生产的同时，劳动者能够有更多的休息。1994-2006：经济腾飞，迎来了中国的“黄金周”到了90年代，改革开放带来了中国经济的飞速发展，人民生活水平也有了显著提升。

C | 这时候，公休制度的改革加速了。1994年，国务院出台了《职工工作时间的规定》，规定每周工作44小时，并且提出可以根据实际情况安排大小周休假。同年7月，全国人大常委会通过《中华人民共和国劳动法》，以法律形式确定8-44工作制度，并严格限制每日加班时间不超过3小时，平时、休息日、法定假日加班工资为正常水平的150%/200%/300%。1999年，假期改革的脚步再度加快。国务院改革出台新的法定休假制度，每年春节、劳动节及国庆节的法定假日均设为3天。也就是从这一年“十一”开始，旅游黄金周的概念渐渐诞生。

D | 至此，我国法定假期提升至10天。1999年版延续了上一版本中适合部分公民放假的节日及纪念日安排，仍为妇女节、青年节、儿童节及建军节。不同的是，将儿童节由半天延长至1天，妇女节、青年节、建军节放假时间维持半天；且对于适应人群的身份限定得更为具体、规范。对于补假安排，1999年版规定，全体公民放假的假日，如果适逢星期六，星期日，应当在工作日补假；部分公民放假的假日，如果适逢星期六，星期日，则不补假。这与1949年规定只在周一补假的情形有所不同，因而也令放假前后调休、调班现象出现，事实上每年都会出现两次“七天长假”。2007-2024：黄金周一存一废，增加传统节日进入2007年，国务院再次对《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》进行了重大调整。五一劳动节的3+4黄金周被取消，改为1天的法定假期，但清明、端午和中秋节却被增设为法定假期，令全体公民放假的节日天数由10天增至11天。具体安排为：新年、清明节、劳动节、端午节、中秋节各1天；春节、国庆节各3天。与前两个版本都不同的是，春节开始放假的时间由初一提前到了除夕。

E | 至此我国已确立115天法定休息日制度，并沿用至今（法定假期达11天，全年公休104天）。随后的几年里，假期安排逐渐向“弹性化”迈进，并引入小长假与调休制度。例如，2013年，国务院对《办法》进行了第3次修订，除夕曾被“踢”出法定假日；2015年，除夕重回春节假期，但这不代表除夕又“回归”为法定假日，而只是被纳入春节长假之中，把调休时间提前，体现了政策执行的灵活性。

F | 2023年，国务院还为2024年安排的假期新增一天，春节假期更是延长至8天，实际休假天数不断上升，2024年全年假期天数达116天，为劳动力市场带来了更多的休息与消费机会。

G | “调休”与“放假”——假期政策的背后，隐藏着哪些商机？这次最新的调整，将农历除夕和5月2日纳入了法定假期，为春节和劳动节增添了更多的假期时间。

H | 特别是对于春节，4天的假期让大家有更多的时间享受家庭团聚的同时，也可以进行短途旅游或休闲。与此同时，国务院也强调了“合理调休”这一点，指出“除个别特殊情形外，法定节假日假期前后连续工作一般不超过6天”，给企业更多的灵活性，这不仅仅是能让员工的工作与生活更加平衡，也意味着一个更健康的消费市场正在悄然形成。假期制度的变化不仅仅是为了“休息”，更是推动经济发展的重要手段。财通证券的数据显示，2019年，中国的旅游收入达到5.7万亿元，占当年GDP的5.8%。黄金周、双休制和小长假激发了人们的出行热情，带动了酒店、景区、餐饮、交通等一系列消费产业。国金认为，假期政策的潜在调整（如取消调休）可能进一步激发休闲旅游需求。特别是自然景区和在线旅游平台。数据显示，2023年第三季度，国内旅游人次达到15.7亿，同比增长21.3%。前三季度总出游人次为42.9亿，同比增长16.8%，显示出旅游意愿的强劲释放。