一呼百应

在英国女皇伊丽莎白二世于当地时间9月8日逝世后，虽然不少英国人都在悼念他们享年96岁的君主的离世，但也有一些西方学者把目光投向了她遗留下来的一个充满争议的遗产：英国的王室制度。其中，研究英国历史和世界历史的美国哈佛大学知名历史学教授马娅·亚桑诺夫，就给美国《纽约时报》撰文一篇，谈及了她对英女王逝世一事的看法。    WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。这篇文章的标题是：哀悼女王，而不是她的帝国（Mourn the Queen, Not Her Empire）。不过，由于这篇文章相当长，耿直哥这里仅简单介绍一下文章的大致内容。简单来说，亚桑诺夫的这篇文章大致可以分为三部分。在第一部分，亚桑诺夫先是在英国历史的大背景下，客观地回顾了伊丽莎白二世的一生，并肯定了她在位期间取得的一些成绩，认为这位英国在位时间最长的君主是值得人们悼念的。

B | （截图来自亚桑诺夫在《纽约时报》上撰写的文章，下同）不过，在文章的中间部分，亚桑诺夫话锋一转，开始讲述起了自伊丽莎白二世继位以来，英帝国被她的个人光环所遮盖住的黑历史，比如上世纪中叶马来西亚、肯尼亚、塞浦路斯、也门等英国前殖民地的“总督”对当地独立运动的血腥镇压。这位历史学教授表示，由于这些英帝国的黑历史很多都被殖民地的官员们给销毁或封存了起来，所以很多英国人自己也不清楚这些事。一些英国政客和社会活动人士虽然曾公开过这些黑历史并谴责过英帝国的暴行，但也未能引起广泛的社会关注。

C | 至于英女王是否知情，亚桑诺夫这里给出的一个观点是：“我们或许永远不会知道女王是否知道这些以她的名义犯下的罪行”。

D | 在第三部分，亚桑诺夫又将视角投向了21世纪，指出英国王室与新千年也越发地格格不入，比如英国的社会和文化正在变得越来越多元化，有色人种也越来越多，2011年的人口普查结果是7名英国人里就有1人是有色人种，可英国的钱币上却仍然只印有这位白人女王的头像。又比如越来越多的英国前殖民地开始要求英国为之前的殖民罪行做出赔偿，一些英联邦国家则人心思变，有的干脆公开宣布要走共和制的道路，与英国王室决裂。而在谈及英国自脱欧以来出现的一系列社会问题时，亚桑诺夫更认为英国女王的长寿反而令内忧外患的英国更容易陷入对“第二个伊丽莎白时代”不切实际的幻想以及对英帝国时期的怀念。英国自脱欧以来的首相也在迎合着这种情绪，从约翰逊到特拉斯都在鼓吹着诸如“全球英国”（Global Britain）这种带有对英帝国时期眷恋意味的政治口号。

E | “现在她走了，英国帝国主义的王室制度也必须终结了”，亚桑诺夫在文章的结尾处写道。她还认为，继位的英国国王查尔斯三世应该从将英国王室授予杰出人士的“大英帝国勋章”（Order of the British Empire）改名开始，让英国王室做出真正顺应历史的改变，大大减少以前那种奢靡的王室盛典，让王室逐渐向北欧斯堪的纳维亚国家那种更加平民化、象征性大于实际意义的王室转变。“这将一个值得庆祝的结局”，亚桑诺夫写道。最后值得一提的是，虽然亚桑诺夫的文章并不是在攻击伊丽莎白二世，而是在客观肯定伊丽莎白二世的同时，提出为什么英国王室已经不再适合这个时代，可这篇文章还是深深刺激到了英国网民的情感。

F | 在境外的社交网络上，大量英国网民就对此文表达了强烈不满，认为亚桑诺夫在伊丽莎白二世刚去世不久就写出这样的文章，是对逝者的不尊重。一些英国的保守派网民还认为立场偏自由派的《纽约时报》是“故意”用这样一个文章来恶心伊丽莎白二世的。这些人甚至还给英国的殖民主义进行辩护，说恰恰是英国的殖民才令许多殖民地得到了“高度”的“发展”和“进步”。但也一些网民很认同亚桑诺夫这篇文章的观点，并认为这篇文章值得一读。不过颇为搞笑的是，当《纽约时报》中文网在9月13日晚间将这篇文章进行了摘编和翻译后，一些海外的中文账号也纷纷跳出来攻击起了该报。而且他们中不仅有人也在为英国的殖民主义进行辩护，甚至还给《纽约时报》以及文章的作者亚桑诺夫扣上了一个“通共通中”的帽子。这大概就是“皇帝不急，（外国）太监急”吧？